The last two years have been hard. A pandemic, social and political unrest, cultural upheaval, were all difficult to navigate. Yet the stock market endured, even thrived. It was a relief in the midst of a tumultuous present and uncertain future. But that strong performance was, in many ways, bought by borrowed money. Or not even […]
January 2022 My wife recently reminded me of something that is often said to first-time parents, "the nights are long but the years are short." Those first few weeks of parenthood are certainly tense as you focus on every feeding, nap and diaper change. Sometimes, in the midst of it, you might think ahead to […]
A relatively quick 5% or so market drop last month put the usual behavioral dynamics in play. Investors with most of their wealth tied up in the markets started to wonder if it was time to take some cash out before markets dropped further. People with too much cash on the sidelines thought about taking […]
July 2021 In many ways, investing can be a creative undertaking, almost like an artist staring at an empty canvas wondering what colors and shapes to add. The investor's blank canvas is an empty portfolio except for cash that has been built up over years of working, saving and striving by individuals and families. That […]
My youngest son recently asked me a simple yet provocative question, "Why do stocks ever go down?" Now you could dismiss the question as a product of a period of stock market ebullience, when even a thirteen year old's small investment account seems to go up by the week and month if not every day. […]
When writing an investment outlook at the beginning of a new year it can be tempting to wait just a few days more for a little better clarity so as to improve your chances of getting your predictions "right." Why write on January 1, 2021 when you can wait until after the Georgia Senate runoff […]
In investing it is usually unwise to place too much emphasis on one's personal experiences to determine an investment strategy. But I am going to make an exception by describing how my own experiences in 2020 may offer some guidance on what has occurred in financial markets and what may lie ahead. The COVOD-19 pandemic […]
As many of us were locked down in March, we all hoped for better times later in the year. Perhaps by summer, we told ourselves, things would be better and the COVID-19 virus would be in abeyance. Months crawled by. A strange Spring. Stocks bottomed and then, slowly, fitfully, recovered, especially the "stay at home" […]
Peyton L. Rosenberg Summer Intern www.arrivalcapital.com July 2020 Generation Z: Trends, Purchasing Habits, and Favorite Brands in Aftermath of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdowns The Coronavirus has affected financial markets both positively and negatively throughout the last five months by, in general, hurting the restaurant and travel industry and helping industries like electronic gaming and online […]
A few days ago, I finally had the chance to read Warren Buffett's latest shareholder letter. It contained a good reminder of a key reason we buy and hold stocks of great companies -- to go along for the ride as successful enterprises re-invest profits in their key businesses to expand upon already existing profitability, […]
In the lead up to 2020, a timely New Year's resolution would have been to try to see things more clearly in the new year, as in 20/20 vision, which is defined as "normal visual acuity (the clarity or sharpness of vision) measured at a distance of 20 feet. If you have 20/20 vision, you […]
Summer gives way to fall. In those first few days of September, we often feel a pang of regret that the restful flow of August is ending, with Labor Day as a hard and fast border with busier times. But, if you are like me, it amazes how fast we get used to September's quickening […]
It seems less and less people really enjoying flying. Most of us fly because we want to get somewhere worth going. To get to these places we endure the lines, security checks, cramped seats and, often, turbulence. Personally, I hate turbulence, the ups and downs, the bumps and shaking of the jet fuselage. It's not […]
Winter in New York has definitely descended upon us this week, with bone chilling temperatures under crisp blue skies forcing New Yorkers to crouch into the wind; hats, scarfs, and bulky winter jackets offering only a little relief from the cold. It can be tempting to think ahead (or back) six months to the warmth […]
A sudden, October storm engulfed US stock markets, sending indices down around 10% but doing even more damage to recent high-flyers like Amazon and Netflix. It should not have been a complete surprise given trade disputes, political tensions, and rising interest rates. In the lead up to the downturn, it made sense to slowly build […]
After fifteen years of managing money professionally, I can safely say that I love my job. One fulfilling part is working with people to understand their financial needs and goals and coming up with a financial plan and portfolio of holdings that gives them the best chance of achieving those goals. Another exciting part of […]
In his latest Chairman's letter for Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett lays out his rationale for owning stocks, "Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their "chart" patterns, the "target" prices of analysts or the opinions of […]
One benefit of waiting almost a month into a new year to write an investment outlook is that it should give you a slight edge in actually being accurate. But so far January 2018 has been like much of 2017 for the stock market -- higher, albeit with a bit more urgency and volatility. We […]
After market downturns it is often important not to let fear of further declines cause investors to sell down their positions at what might be at or near market lows. The harmful effect of such panic selling is often exacerbated by then having to pay capital gains taxes on long held positions. Yet another harmful […]
Staying grounded as an investor is vital to long term success, and is as important when financial markets are making new highs as when crisis envelopes the economy. As we continue to experience a rapidly increasing market, it is helpful to consider what staying grounded actually means. Clearly, one aspect is to not get carried […]
Resilient. What else to call a US stock market that once again is making new highs? Here at home, with political animosity seeming as high as it has ever been, the market moves higher, amid ongoing uncertainty over the future of healthcare, taxes, foreign policy, trade and many other pivotal questions we count on our […]
We usually write our annual investment preview right after New Year's Day, sometimes sneaking in a few extra days to try to gain some additional clarity on the year to come. This year, however, we waited until a new political era dawned, for good or ill, with the inauguration of President Trump ten days ago. Readers […]
Well, with summer officially over, attention now turns to autumn, traditionally a time that sizzles with vigor and opportunity along with uncertainty and the sense of another year heading into the history books. Before looking ahead, however, one more look back at summer is warranted. For Arrival Capital Management LLC, the summer of 2016 was […]
On the afternoon of February 11th, less than two months ago, major stock market averages were down more than 10% to start off the year, one of the worst performances to begin a year in decades. This awful start followed a negative year for most stock markets in 2015. What was driving the negative performance […]
Nearly eleven months into 2015 the Dow Jones Industrial Average is unchanged for the year and the S&P 500 index is barely positive. Does that mean all the ups and downs, the emotional swings caused by August's abrupt market correction (a more than 10% decline) and autumn's swift recovery were all meaningless? Not exactly. The […]
