Market Insights

April 18, 2024
Nobody Knows Anything* -- Arrival Capital's Q2 Investment Outlook

*but a diversified, value-based portfolio will win over time April18, 2024 Commenting on the movie business more than four decades ago, screenwriter William Goldman famously wrote, "nobody knows anything." He meant that even the most experienced, smartest Hollywood types could not predict with any certainty what movies would be successful as opposed to bombing spectacularly. […]

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January 21, 2024
The New, New Year -- Arrival Capital's 2024 Investment Outlook

January 21, 2024 Three weeks into 2024 and many of us are back into familiar patterns of work, school and life as a whole.  The first few days of a new calendar year are often a little cloudy in our minds.  Something feels different even as everything is exactly the same.  But then vacations end, the kids […]

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November 1, 2023
Hard Times Demand Sound Advice -- Arrival Capital's Mid-4th Quarter 2023 Update

November 1, 2023 The world can be a dangerous place. We have seen that in Israel, with the barbaric attack by Hamas on civilians on October 7th and the repercussions that attack is having across the globe. There is the ongoing war in Ukraine and all that has done to undermine security in Europe as […]

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July 14, 2023
The Longest Journey -- Arrival Capital's Investment Guide to 2023's 2nd Half and Beyond

July 15, 2023 At our firm website,, you can find a detailed description of our investment approach. We highly recommend reading it to know how we look at constructing portfolios, picking stocks, and managing client capital for the long term. But this quarter's investment guide starts at the very beginning. Our title "the longest […]

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April 25, 2023
Spring Cleaning -- Q2 2023 Investment Update

April 21, 2023 "Spring cleaning" is a term we have all heard for years. But, as we head into the middle of this year's springtime, what exactly are we supposed to be cleaning up? I suppose we could go through our closets and see what we did not wear over the winter (or the last […]

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February 3, 2023
Time To Persevere -- 2023 Investment Outlook

Perseverance is an underrated trait. As investors, it is almost always smarter to focus on long term performance and not obsess over short term volatility. But 2022 tested this investing tenet. First of all, an entire year is not really so short term. 2022 saw investments of all kinds, including most bonds and stocks, decline […]

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October 31, 2022
Cash Flow for Sale -- Autumn 2022 Investment Battle Plan

What now?  More than 80% through what has been one of the worst overall years for investing in decades, investors look around at a changed landscape of higher interest rates, slowing growth, and elevated inflation and wonder how to position for the year(s) ahead.  Should you take advantage of higher interest rates and lock in […]

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September 12, 2022
September 2022 -- An Investor Check-In

September 2022 The week after Labor Day often feels like a new beginning, New Year's without the cold and ice. Maybe it is those old back-to-school reflexes, or the beginning of football season. Those of us who are a little older remember September as when the new television season kicked off. Whatever the origins, September […]

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September 9, 2022
Should I Invest in a Real Estate Investment Trust?

August 15, 2022 By Daniel Keller, Summer Intern How can a real estate company that operates in an inflationary market turn a profit? Interest rates and inflation are high, accompanied by two quarters of negative GDP growth. On one hand, companies have less cash on hand as increased operating costs crunch margins. New development and […]

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September 9, 2022
Green Energy: A Value Chain Defined By Electric Vehicles

August 15, 2022 By Dylan Blanch, Summer Intern At the moment, green energy constitutes 12.2% of the world’s annual energy consumption, and by 2030 that number is expected to rise to between 30-45%. With society attempting to be more environmentally conscious, electric vehicles (EVs) have vastly increased in popularity. In 2021 alone, the electric automobile […]

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July 20, 2022
Mid-Summer 2022 Investment Update -- The Search for an Inflection Point

In a year marked by gloom, pessimism and inflation, not to mention war and the continued spread of a highly contagious virus, investors for the most part have sold and hunkered down. There have been few places for investors to hide, with stocks and bonds selling off. Even holding cash subjects one to the pernicious […]

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April 11, 2022
Spring 2022 Investment Update -- It's Payback Time, What Now?

The last two years have been hard.  A pandemic, social and political unrest, cultural upheaval, were all difficult to navigate.  Yet the stock market endured, even thrived.  It was a relief in the midst of a tumultuous present and uncertain future.  But that strong performance was, in many ways, bought by borrowed money.  Or not even […]

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January 17, 2022
Investing in 2022 -- Arrival Capital's Approach

January 2022 My wife recently reminded me of something that is often said to first-time parents, "the nights are long but the years are short." Those first few weeks of parenthood are certainly tense as you focus on every feeding, nap and diaper change. Sometimes, in the midst of it, you might think ahead to […]

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October 20, 2021
Into the Investing Fray -- Arrival Capital's Autumn 2021 Investment Update

A relatively quick 5% or so market drop last month put the usual behavioral dynamics in play. Investors with most of their wealth tied up in the markets started to wonder if it was time to take some cash out before markets dropped further. People with too much cash on the sidelines thought about taking […]

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July 13, 2021
Arrival Capital's Summer 2021 Update -- Searching For Excellence

July 2021 In many ways, investing can be a creative undertaking, almost like an artist staring at an empty canvas wondering what colors and shapes to add. The investor's blank canvas is an empty portfolio except for cash that has been built up over years of working, saving and striving by individuals and families. That […]

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April 19, 2021
Arrival Capital Spring 2021 Update -- Why Do Stocks Go Down?

My youngest son recently asked me a simple yet provocative question, "Why do stocks ever go down?" Now you could dismiss the question as a product of a period of stock market ebullience, when even a thirteen year old's small investment account seems to go up by the week and month if not every day. […]

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January 18, 2021
Arrival Capital's 2021 Investment Outlook -- Soaring Twenties?

When writing an investment outlook at the beginning of a new year it can be tempting to wait just a few days more for a little better clarity so as to improve your chances of getting your predictions "right." Why write on January 1, 2021 when you can wait until after the Georgia Senate runoff […]

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October 15, 2020
Arrival Capital's 4th Quarter Preview -- 2020: The Finale

In investing it is usually unwise to place too much emphasis on one's personal experiences to determine an investment strategy.  But I am going to make an exception by describing how my own experiences in 2020 may offer some guidance on what has occurred in financial markets and what may lie ahead.  The COVOD-19 pandemic […]

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July 19, 2020
Arrival Capital's Mid-Year Review -- Summer Help

As many of us were locked down in March, we all hoped for better times later in the year. Perhaps by summer, we told ourselves, things would be better and the COVID-19 virus would be in abeyance. Months crawled by. A strange Spring. Stocks bottomed and then, slowly, fitfully, recovered, especially the "stay at home" […]

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July 14, 2020
Generation Z: Trends, Purchasing Habits, and Favorite Brands in Aftermath of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdowns

Peyton L. Rosenberg Summer Intern July 2020 Generation Z: Trends, Purchasing Habits, and Favorite Brands in Aftermath of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdowns The Coronavirus has affected financial markets both positively and negatively throughout the last five months by, in general, hurting the restaurant and travel industry and helping industries like electronic gaming and online […]

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May 11, 2020
Q2 2020 Investment Update -- A Time Like No Other

A few days ago, I finally had the chance to read Warren Buffett's latest shareholder letter. It contained a good reminder of a key reason we buy and hold stocks of great companies -- to go along for the ride as successful enterprises re-invest profits in their key businesses to expand upon already existing profitability, […]

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January 24, 2020
2020 Investment Preview -- Seeing Clearly

In the lead up to 2020, a timely New Year's resolution would have been to try to see things more clearly in the new year, as in 20/20 vision, which is defined as "normal visual acuity (the clarity or sharpness of vision) measured at a distance of 20 feet. If you have 20/20 vision, you […]

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September 26, 2019
2019 Fall Update -- A World of Promise and Uncertainty

Summer gives way to fall. In those first few days of September, we often feel a pang of regret that the restful flow of August is ending, with Labor Day as a hard and fast border with busier times. But, if you are like me, it amazes how fast we get used to September's quickening […]

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April 12, 2019
A Journey Worth the Turbulence -- Q2 2019 Investment Update

It seems less and less people really enjoying flying. Most of us fly because we want to get somewhere worth going. To get to these places we endure the lines, security checks, cramped seats and, often, turbulence. Personally, I hate turbulence, the ups and downs, the bumps and shaking of the jet fuselage. It's not […]

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January 15, 2019
Tumultuous Times -- Q1 2019 Investment Update

Winter in New York has definitely descended upon us this week, with bone chilling temperatures under crisp blue skies forcing New Yorkers to crouch into the wind; hats, scarfs, and bulky winter jackets offering only a little relief from the cold. It can be tempting to think ahead (or back) six months to the warmth […]

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October 31, 2018
Arrival Capital 2018 3rd Quarter Update -- A Scary October

A sudden, October storm engulfed US stock markets, sending indices down around 10% but doing even more damage to recent high-flyers like Amazon and Netflix.  It should not have been a complete surprise given trade disputes, political tensions, and rising interest rates.  In the lead up to the downturn, it made sense to slowly build […]

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July 16, 2018
2018 Mid-Summer Investment Update -- No Doldrums This Year

After fifteen years of managing money professionally, I can safely say that I love my job.  One fulfilling part is working with people to understand their financial needs and goals and coming up with a financial plan and portfolio of holdings that gives them the best chance of achieving those goals.  Another exciting part of […]

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April 20, 2018
Q2 2018 Investment Update -- The Forest Through the Trees

In his latest Chairman's letter for Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett lays out his rationale for owning stocks, "Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their "chart" patterns, the "target" prices of analysts or the opinions of […]

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January 30, 2018
Q1 2018 Investment Update -- Fast Start for the New Year but.....

One benefit of waiting almost a month into a new year to write an investment outlook is that it should give you a slight edge in actually being accurate.  But so far January 2018 has been like much of 2017 for the stock market -- higher, albeit with a bit more urgency and volatility.  We […]

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October 25, 2017
Autumn 2017 Investment Update -- Why We Invest

After market downturns it is often important not to let fear of further declines cause investors to sell down their positions at what might be at or near market lows.  The harmful effect of such panic selling is often exacerbated by then having to pay capital gains taxes on long held positions.  Yet another harmful […]

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July 21, 2017
Summer 2017 Investment Update -- Staying Grounded

Staying grounded as an investor is vital to long term success, and is as important when financial markets are making new highs as when crisis envelopes the economy.  As we continue to experience a rapidly increasing market, it is helpful to consider what staying grounded actually means.  Clearly, one aspect is to not get carried […]

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April 26, 2017
Investing Smartly in an Uncertain World -- Q2 2017 Investment Update

Resilient.  What else to call a US stock market that once again is making new highs?  Here at home, with political animosity seeming as high as it has ever been, the market moves higher, amid ongoing uncertainty over the future of healthcare, taxes, foreign policy, trade and many other pivotal questions we count on our […]

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January 30, 2017
A New Era Begins -- 2017 Investment Thoughts

We usually write our annual investment preview right after New Year's Day, sometimes sneaking in a few extra days to try to gain some additional clarity on the year to come.  This year, however, we waited until a new political era dawned, for good or ill, with the inauguration of President Trump ten days ago.  Readers […]

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September 23, 2016
Arrival Capital's Fall 2016 Preview

Well, with summer officially over, attention now turns to autumn, traditionally a time that sizzles with vigor and opportunity along with uncertainty and the sense of another year heading into the history books.  Before looking ahead, however, one more look back at summer is warranted. For Arrival Capital Management LLC, the summer of 2016 was […]

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March 31, 2016
2016 Q1 Review -- A Tale of Two Directions

On the afternoon of February 11th, less than two months ago, major stock market averages were down more than 10% to start off the year, one of the worst performances to begin a year in decades.  This awful start followed a negative year for most stock markets in 2015.  What was driving the negative performance […]

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November 20, 2015
A Tricky Year Draws to a Close -- Q4 2015 Investment Update

Nearly eleven months into 2015 the Dow Jones Industrial Average is unchanged for the year and the S&P 500 index is barely positive.  Does that mean all the ups and downs, the emotional swings caused by August's abrupt market correction (a more than 10% decline) and autumn's swift recovery were all meaningless?  Not exactly.  The […]

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